In its second-quarter 2026 results, Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) demonstrated a visible operating inflection, as quarterly 45Z recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics more than offset weaker India revenue tied to tender timing. The company reported revenue of $62.7 million, up 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially, though below the $68.6 million consensus. However, normalized EPS of negative $0.11 exceeded the negative $0.24 consensus, and underlying performance was stronger than the revenue variance suggested.
Gross profit improved significantly to $13.5 million from a $3.4 million loss in the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a stark contrast to negative $5.8 million in the prior year. This marks a critical milestone for the company, as it transitions from a period of heavy investment to generating positive operating leverage.
The dairy RNG segment remains the clearest growth driver. Sales volume increased 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. The company has seven approved LCFS pathways with an average negative carbon intensity of 380, which are already improving credit economics. Six additional pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes ethanol plant's earnings bridge continues to advance. The mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system is targeted for operation by year-end 2026, and management estimates approximately $32 million of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027.
However, the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the investment thesis. As of the end of the quarter, Aemetis had only $1.0 million of unrestricted cash and $415.9 million of total debt. Refinancing progress is still crucial to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow. The company's ability to manage its debt obligations while scaling its RNG operations will be key to unlocking long-term shareholder value.
Stonegate Capital Partners, which provides equity research and investor relations services, highlighted these developments in its updated coverage. The firm noted that despite the revenue miss, the underlying operational improvements were positive, and the company is on a clearer path to profitability.
For more details, see the full announcement at Stonegate Capital Partners.
