BHP's Chief Financial Officer, Vandita Pant, has warned that the global copper market could face a structural supply deficit from 2028, with the shortfall equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines the size of Escondida, the world's largest copper mine. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the increase in annual supply needed by the mid-2030s to satisfy growing consumption is substantial, and declining production from existing deposits is already putting pressure on supply.
Traditional sources of consumption, such as population growth and urbanization, are now being joined by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment, and the shift to cleaner energy. Pant noted that traditional sources of consumption are increasingly complemented by these new drivers, with annual global copper demand projected to exceed 50 million metric tons by 2050. Data centers alone could consume roughly 3 million metric tons per year over the same period.
Recent mine disruptions and operational difficulties have already weighed on output, and the International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China, and Chile. Pant distinguished between temporary imbalances and the long-term structural gap, but maintained that short-term movements do not alter BHP's longer-term outlook.
BHP, the world's largest copper producer, is expanding its focus on the metal, which accounted for over 50% of its underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company expects its internally developed projects to increase attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years. Planned initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as the development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If the predicted structural supply shortage materializes, entities such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from added demand and rising prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production level. The announcement underscores the challenges facing the mining industry in meeting future copper demand and highlights the need for significant new mine development.
