The latest episode of DH Unplugged, titled 'Stupid Does Stupid,' delivers a blunt assessment of what hosts Andrew Horowitz and JC Dvorak consider the five dumbest moves currently shaking financial markets. Published August 25, 2026, the episode lands just before NVIDIA's earnings report and the Jackson Hole symposium, framing a week where Treasury maneuvers, tariff reversals, and a weakening dollar collide with high AI expectations.
At the top of the list is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded long-bond buybacks, which the hosts dub 'Bessent's Big Bond Blunder.' Horowitz argues that the market's reaction—a brief dip in yields that quickly reversed—shows the move lacks substance. 'There is no quantitative easing going on,' Horowitz says. 'The dollar is down, but not that much. The fact is that everybody just wants to buy it. This is an excuse.' Dvorak adds that if retail buyers believe the debasement narrative, then image control is working, even if rates snapped back after Bessent hinted the $4 billion monthly pace could climb higher. They also flag unusual inflows into TLT on August 18, the day before the announcement, calling it 'information leakage,' not luck.
The episode also examines Trump's tariff cut on imported beef, questioning who actually bears the cost. Dvorak notes that tariffs are often passed to consumers, and the move may be more political than economic. New Iran sanctions targeting roughly 60 individuals, companies, and vessels under 'Operation Economic Outcast' are discussed, with implications for oil markets and global supply chains.
Bitcoin's surge past $80,000 and gold's rise on a softer dollar are scrutinized. Horowitz dismisses the debasement trade as overblown, pointing out that the dollar's decline is modest. 'This is an excuse,' he reiterates. Dvorak counters by highlighting the psychological impact on retail investors who believe the story.
Walmart's consumer warning is a key focus, with U.S. comparable sales up just 2.6% against roughly 3% inflation. Dvorak, who has consulted with Walmart's data science team, argues the retailer's predictive models make its caution credible. He also references Costco's earlier warning about shoppers swapping chicken for tuna as a recession tell. On NVIDIA, the hosts spotlight Kingslide Works, a Taiwanese maker of roughly 70% of data center rack slides, up about 400% in a year, as an early indicator ahead of the Ultra Rubin chip cycle.
The episode also digs into Venezuelan oil refining bottlenecks, strategic petroleum reserves near 1983 levels, salt-cavern integrity risks in Texas and Louisiana, and China's 90% share of Iranian oil imports. These issues, while less headline-grabbing, could have significant market implications.
DH Unplugged, hosted by Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak, blends Fed watching, earnings analysis, commodities, tech, and offbeat cultural riffs in a skeptical, humorous style. Episode 815 is available now wherever podcasts are heard.
