Daniel Kaufman, founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, the family office and permanent capital holding company, said the wave of commercial real estate retrades following the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase is separating capital that can close from capital that cannot, and that family offices investing their own money should be ready to step into that gap.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16, and minutes released Oct. 7 showed most officials believe another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Since then, The Wall Street Journal and trade outlets including CRE Daily and Citybiz have reported buyers pressing to renegotiate deals signed earlier in 2026, with some threatening to walk away. Trepp data cited in that coverage show 11.42% of CMBS loans were with special servicers in August, the highest share since February 2013.
“A retrade is a buyer telling a seller the deal was really a bet on the rate,” Kaufman said. “When the rate moves, the price moves, and everyone downstream waits. The sellers, contractors and towns counting on those projects carry that uncertainty. We invest our own capital, so our underwriting has to work without assuming the next Fed decision goes our way.”
Kaufman said the moment favors long-term owners over buyers whose returns depend on a narrow financing window, particularly in housing, where a stalled closing can push back construction and leave homes unbuilt.
“This is when family office capital should earn its keep,” Kaufman said. “We are not looking to win by grinding down a seller who negotiated in good faith. We want to be the partner people can count on at the closing table, because on a housing deal a delay is not a line item; it is fewer homes for the people who need them.”
Kaufman & Company invests only its own capital and does not raise outside funds. Its operating companies span housing development, design and construction, real estate consulting and venture investment, and this month the company announced BUILD 2030, a national initiative coordinating its housing, real estate and AI infrastructure work. The platform, described at thekaufmanco.com, represents more than $2 billion in project value and more than 10,000 housing units across more than 25 years of building, lending and investing.
The retrade wave matters beyond individual transactions because it tests which buyers can perform when financing conditions shift. Sellers who signed deals earlier in 2026 face the choice of accepting lower prices or watching projects stall, and the uncertainty cascades to contractors, local governments and ultimately renters and homebuyers. Kaufman’s argument is that permanent capital, which does not need to satisfy outside investors or exit on a fixed timeline, can shorten that uncertainty by closing on terms that do not depend on the next rate decision. With Fed minutes pointing to another possible increase by year end, the premium on capital that can actually close is likely to persist, making the distinction between committed and contingent buyers a central issue for commercial real estate through the rest of 2026.
